How wrong are our 2022 startup estimates? • TechCrunch


What a decade it has been. It was this year. Although forecasting classes always come with a big asterisk because nobody knows what the future holds — a big shocker in sectors like big startups — our views on 2022 are out of date… surprisingly.

Last year, Natasha Mascarnhas, Alex Wilhelm, and Anna Heim presented three different startup ideas that could define the next 12 months. Now, we’ll take a reality check on how accurate the predictions were and what we can change about our perspective. We know. Humble.

For an easy holiday riff, we’re talking about what’s happened in the M&A space, open source, and usage-based pricing. Let’s have fun!

Natasha: Let’s talk about purchases

Last year, I predicted that M&A would evolve to include a more risky ambition. I mentioned Twitter’s hunger for a Slack competitor and Nike’s love affair with NFT aggregators. I’ve even reminded startup founders to “stay organized even in a cash-rich environment” instead of “hot weather and spinning Web 3 strategies” because they think that’s what their cap table wants to hear. (And that culture and technology are difficult to integrate at the same time).



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