How to use the secondary market to get a clue of who will do the first IPO

Venture capitalists and Startup founders are eagerly anticipating the return of the industry’s exit environment to 2023 — especially a revival of IPOs.

After 2021, a record-breaking year for IPOs, everything is on hold in 2022. Pitchbook counts 296 venture-backed companies going public in 2021, double — or more than — the number from the previous year. This will drop to 28 in 2022, the lowest number since 2009, amid the financial crisis.

There were a few companies that didn’t exit the private market in late 2021 or early 2022, including Instacart, Chime, and Reddit. Hopefully the exit opportunities will be buzzing in the latter half of 2023, we’re still curious to know which companies will go public first.

While by no means an absolute predictor, the secondary market can provide an indication of how close some of these companies are to the public.

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