The new version of the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is very different from the original, said Djavad Salihi-Isfahani, an economics professor at Virginia Tech.
“JCPOA version two is very different from version one. Version one was being implemented by a moderate government that was generally more oriented towards the global economy and closer to the West,” Salihi-Isfahani said.
Last year, JCPOA signatories began the first of many negotiations in Vienna to renew the accord after the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
During the Obama administration, the The first deal in 2015 saw Iran dismantle most of its nuclear program and allow more international inspections in return for economic sanctions relief. Other world powers such as England, France, Germany, Russia and China were also signatories.
Iran’s current president, Ibrahim Raisi, is considered more hardline and anti-Western than Hassan Rouhani, who presided over the signing of the 2015 accord.
The deal aims to normalize Iran’s relations with the West. [given that] The professor added that Rouhani’s group and its political base – Iran’s modern middle class – target the West and oppose Iran’s entry into the Sino-Russian orbit.
“A new JCPOA, if it happens, will be in a very different environment. [as] Iran is shifting its focus from the West to the East. So it needs a different agreement.”
Iran’s pole to the east
In the year
“After Trump pulled out of the deal, the Supreme Leader made it clear that Iran needs to pay more attention to the East,” Salihi-Isfahani said.
Under Raisi, Iran has made efforts to strengthen its relations with Russia and China.
In September last year, Raisi made his first official visit to Tajikistan as president of Iran at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Iran has observer status in the SCO, a regional security group led by China and Russia.
“After Raisi’s election, Iran has been pushing for SCO membership. [also] He visited Moscow twice, and Putin visited Tehran,” the professor said.
Following the international condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the foreign ministers of Iran and Russia recently held a meeting in Tehran.
When Raisi took office, Iran reiterated its 25-year commitment to its comprehensive cooperation program with China.
Obstacles
Although Iran appears to be as optimistic as it was years ago about reaching a deal on a new version of the 2015 nuclear deal, many important hurdles remain.
The European Union has submitted a “final text” for the agreement, but Iranian negotiators have pointed out issues that cannot be reconciled. Iran, for example, wants a guarantee that the deal will last, so that no future US administration can revoke a renewed agreement.
Reid I’Anson, senior commodities analyst at Kepler, is also skeptical of the revival given what he says are obstacles on the domestic front. He told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” last week that a renewed deal was unlikely because it was politically unacceptable in the United States and a “hard sell” in Iran.
