A global sulfur shortage could stop the green technology revolution in its tracks.

According to the University College London study, global demand for sulfuric acid is set to grow significantly from 246 to 400 million tonnes by 2040 – driven by more intensive agriculture and the world’s shift away from fossil fuels.

The researchers estimate that this would result in a supply shortfall of 100 to 320 million tonnes per year – 40 to 130 percent of current supply – depending on how fast carbon decay occurs.

An essential part of modern manufacturing, sulfuric acid is used to produce phosphorus fertilizers for the world’s food, and to extract rare metals from minerals, and for the rapidly needed transition to a green economy, such as cobalt and nickel with high-performance alloys. ion batteries.

Currently, more than 80 percent of the global sulfur supply comes from residual oil and natural gas desulfurization, which reduces emissions of sulfur dioxide gas that causes acid rain.

However, the loss of the global economy to cope with climate change will significantly reduce the supply of fossil fuels – and subsequently sulfur.

The authors of the study stated that they are the first to identify this major issue and pointed out that unless action is taken to reduce the demand for this chemical, it is necessary to fill the resource demand caused by the increase in mining, which causes significant environmental damage.

Lead author Professor Mark Maslin (UCL Geography) said: “Sulfur shortages have happened before, but what makes this different is that the source of the element is changing from fossil fuel industry waste.

We predict that as supplies of this cheap, abundant and readily available form of sulfur dry up, the demand will be met by direct elemental sulfur mining. On the contrary, it will be dirty, toxic, destructive and expensive.

“Research is needed to develop low-cost, low-environmental-impact methods for extracting large amounts of elemental sulfur from abundant sulfate mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust.

“The international community should consider supporting and regulating sulfur mining to reduce the impact of the transition and also avoid distorting the market with cheap unethical products.”

Co-author of the study Dr Simon Day (UCL Institute for Risk and Risk Reduction) said: “The worrying decline in supply means that green technology will struggle to compete with the more expensive supply of sulfur from the fertilizer industry. Especially with food production in developing countries”.

To determine their results, the researchers estimated three sulfuric acid demand scenarios from 2021 to 2040, based on historical and forecasted demand, with annual growth rates of 1.8 to 2.4 percent.

The authors also explored several ways to reduce sulfur demand as part of the transition from a fossil-fuel economy, including recycling phosphorus in wastewater for the fertilizer industry, recycling lithium batteries, or using low-energy batteries that require less sulfur for their production. Ratio batteries.