Climate change has exacerbated the South Asian monsoon that has battered Pakistan in recent weeks, killing more than 1,000 people and destroying nearly 2 million homes.
That’s according to a new analysis by the World Weather Service, a network of scientists who use climate models, weather observations and other tools, that says global warming has increased the likelihood or severity of recent extreme weather events.
However, it is not clear how much of a role climate change has played in this situation.
It is relatively easy to conduct a proprietary study that assesses the effects of temperature fluctuations in heat waves, with the average temperature high above the baseline from which such oscillating events arise. The team calculated exactly how much climate change contributed to last year’s Pacific Northwest heat wave (such events would be “at least 150 times rarer without human-caused climate change”), while the recent UK heat wave (which has seen climate change) was ” It could be at least 10 times higher”), and in Pakistan and India earlier this year (“It could be 30 times higher”).
But using climate models, the role of global warming in intensifying the winter months is more difficult to predict, the researchers said in a press release. Global climate behavior is characterized by some combination of wide variability in long-term extreme precipitation, natural processes that models cannot fully capture, and regional climate anomalies. The Indus River basin is located at the western edge of the region’s monsoon zone, and there is a large difference in rainfall trends between the drier west and the wetter east.
On the other hand, meteorological data show that the maximum rainfall has increased significantly in recent decades, reaching almost 75% in the two most extreme states. Some models show that climate change has increased precipitation by 50% during the five wettest days of two months in those areas.
Frederic Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and one of the world’s leading climate figures, said: “While it is difficult to put an exact figure on the contribution of climate change, the fingerprints of global warming are clear. he said in a statement.
In a scientific paper published on Thursday, a team of researchers indicated that a combination of climate forces caused the peak rainfall. A La Nina phenomenon that cools the upper ocean waters and brings more than usual rainfall over large parts of the world, combined with Pakistan’s unusually warm spring and summer weather. Those cooling temperatures have accelerated the melting of thousands of glaciers that feed the Indus River, though it’s not known how much that contributed to the flooding.
Climate scientists have long warned that global rainfall patterns will become more erratic as the planet warms, making very wet and very dry seasons more common. Among other things, warm air holds more moisture, washes water from soil and plants, and changes atmospheric pressure systems. The United Nations Climate Panel projects that South Asia’s rainfall will remain variable from year to year in the coming decades, but will increase in intensity throughout the 21st century.
Pakistan’s heaviest days of rain are likely to get worse as temperatures rise, the World Meteorological Organization said. This highlights the need for the country to strengthen its riverbanks, homes and other infrastructure to protect its citizens, and the need for rich countries to do what they can to help those who contribute a disproportionate share of climate pollution.
